Is the Fed Being Sector Neutral?
A Financial Analysis of the US Federal Reserve's Corporate Bond Market Interventions
Please use this link when referring to this content.
InfluenceMap released Necessary Intervention or Excessive Risk? in June 2020 to examine the US Federal Reserve's COVID-19 related Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) activity from a risk viewpoint. It was designed to trigger better disclosure from the Fed and central banks globally as to their strategies during these unprecedented interventions in real economy debt markets. It found long term secular declines in certain sectors in which the Fed was investing (notably Energy, which contains oil/gas and coal value chain companies exclusively) which poses issues of excessive risk-taking by the US government and market distortion. Whether the Fed's corporate bond buying is market neutral and the extent to which it is hedging positions is not clear. However, the sector-weightings of the Fed's purchases can be assessed using financial databases and analysis of the Fed's disclosures. The results are outlined in the download below.
The research finds that the only sector where the Fed is consistently overweight on all three indicators (debt outstanding, equity values and employment) is the GISC Energy sector which contains oil/gas and coal value chain companies exclusively. Against a corporate debt outstanding indictor, it is 2X overweight. Against equity values it is 3.5X overweight and against employment, more than 4X overweight.
The Fed's purchases (as of July 10th, 2020) is thus heavily overweight the Energy sector (containing oil/gas and coal value chain companies exclusively). No other sector exhibits this extent of overweighting. Roughly 8% (or $748Mn) of the Fed's $9.5Bn worth of bond purchase issuers to date are in Energy, with $134Mn of this being direct purchases (total $1.5Bn), the rest via ETFs. It is not clear whether the Fed in practice intends to be sector neutral in its real economy bond portfolio and if so, how it intends to achieve this given the current pace of buying.
You will be required to register or login to our site to download these files.